De la nécessité de réduire les déficits publics pour pouvoir investir dans la transition écologique.

Il y a en France aujourd’hui environ 39 millions d’automobiles en circulation [1] et 11 000 stations-service [2]. En 2030 au moins 30% des véhicules seront électriques, ce qui représente 12 millions de véhicules [3].  Cette transition vers une mobilité électrique va nécessiter des investissements privés colossaux. Ces investissements ne seront possibles que si la charge fiscale sur les ménages et les entreprises est réduite fortement. Ce qui veut dire que l’État français doit réduire fortement ces besoins financier. Il n’est sans doute pas inutile de rappeler que le poids du secteur publique en France en 2018 représente 56% du PIB. C’est 10 points de plus que la moyenne européenne.  La pression fiscale en France est de 53,5% du PIB. Là encore c’est 6 points  de plus que nos partenaires européens [4]. Ces chiffres ne sont pas favorables aux investissements privés que requiert la transition écologique. Il n’est sans doute pas inutile de souligner qu’un véhicule électrique nécessite au moins 3 bornes électriques : une au départ et une à l’arrivée du trajet principale le plus utilisé par le véhicule, plus au minium une borne publique partagé qui doit être toujours disponible lorsque l’on en a besoin. Le coût d’installation d’une borne de recharge résidentielle (recharge lente) est de 870 euros, l’installation d’une borne sur un parking publique coûte entre 2890 et 3890 euros.  Le prix de la borne de recharge dans une station-service (recharge rapide) est de 43 400 euros [5]. Le surcoût  d’une voiture électrique à l’achat est en moyenne de 10 000 euros. La dépense des ménages va donc mécaniquement augmenter de 110 milliards d’ici 2030 rien que pour l’achat de véhicule électrique à laquelle s’ajoutera une dizaine de milliards pour l’installation de borne électrique en zone résidentielle,  30 milliards pour l’installation de borne de recharge sur des parkings  et 3 milliard de plus pour l’installation de borne dans les stations-service (5 par stations).  C’est donc environ 153 milliards qu’il faut trouver sur une période de 11 années, soit environ 14 milliard d’euros par ans. En France la pression fiscale sur les ménages et les entreprises à augmenter de 64 milliards par année fiscal en moyenne sur la période 2011-2017 en prenant pour année de référence 2011 [6]. C’est 4 fois ce qui est nécessaire à la transition écologique pour avoir une mobilité électrique.


source: tradingeconomics.com

[1] Parc automobile français

[2] La France ne compte plus que 11.000 stations-service

[3] En 2030, au moins 30% des véhicules seront électriques

[4] Déficit public de la zone euro

[5] Installation d’une borne de recharge voiture électrique : les demandes administratives

[6] Compteur fiscal 2011-2017 : +64,4 milliards d’euros de prélèvements sur les ménages et les entreprises

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